The Years Ahead | Sovereignty Through Mathematics Chapter 12

This is a part of the Bitcoin Infinity Academy course on Knut Svanholm's book Bitcoin: Sovereignty Through Mathematics. For more information, check out our Geyser page!

The Years Ahead#

The Lindy Effect is a theory that describes the future life expectancy of a technology or an idea. It states that an idea’s expected remaining lifespan is proportional to its current age so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy. Bitcoin, which is not only an idea but also a technology and a social experiment, is ten years old now, and therefore, we can expect it to stay around for at least another ten.

At the time of writing, there are exactly 17,669,941 bitcoins around, and twelve and a half new ones are created every ten minutes. 17,669,941 is about 84% of the total supply, that is, the total amount of Bitcoin that will ever exist. Ten years from now, around twenty million Bitcoin will have been found, three more block reward halvings will have taken place, and the reward for each block found will be 1.5625 Bitcoin. The whole world will have a little more than two and a half million new Bitcoin around. This is to be compared with the more than seventeen and a half million that were created during the last ten years when they were cheap and relatively easy to come by. In the network’s first couple of years, you could acquire several Bitcoin by just claiming them from special websites called faucets every once in a while. The US dollar’s cumulative rate of inflation was 15.6 percent during this period. This means that each dollar lost more than one sixth of its value in the last ten years due to quantitative easing, which is the central banker’s term for counterfeiting. It is very unlikely that the cumulative rate of inflation for the US dollar in the upcoming ten years will be any lower than these 15.6 percent since the fractional reserve lending system requires a little more inflation each year to sustain itself. So, a little less than 2.5 million new Bitcoin to share and at least 20% more US dollars in circulation to buy them with.

Now, let’s look at the Internet itself. Metcalfe’s Law states that the value of a communications network is proportional to the number of users on the network squared. Each new Internet user is a potential new Bitcoin user, especially in those places on the planet where there’s poor Internet connectivity because those places often have a weak local currency that Bitcoin functions as a hedge against. In 2008, 23% of the world’s population had access to the Internet, and in 2018, that number was 48%. In the developing world, the numbers were 14% in 2008 and 41% in 2018. The global numbers might not double again in the forthcoming ten years, but it looks like they’ll keep on rising, especially in developing countries, where they might just double again. All of these indicators (less Bitcoin, more fiat money, more Internet users) point toward a rising Bitcoin price, regardless of its current valuation. Bitcoin has risen in value extremely fast and has added, on average, an additional zero at the end of its price figure roughly every three years. Can it really keep on doing so? Think about the underlying forces that drive the price up. Every single mobile device could potentially hold Bitcoin, yet only a select few do. When more and more people embrace the technology, the whole fear of missing out cycle starts again, and the price jumps up to the next plateau. Note also that every current Bitcoin user can do three things with his or her coins: sell them, lose them, or hold them. On top of this, nothing is stopping an existing Bitcoin user from acquiring more coins.

Bitcoin is an Internet protocol that is very resistant to change. It showed an unprecedented example of this in late 2017 when all of the biggest companies in Bitcoin decided that they were going to implement the proposed Segregated Witness upgrade and then hard fork to 2-megabyte blocks a couple of months later. Segregated Witness, which most users wanted, was activated, but the network’s users resisted the 2-megabyte block hard fork. This led to a lot of frustration among the proponents of the hard fork and led to the creation of a copycat altcoin called Bitcoin Cash. The price of both tokens rose quickly in the aftermath of the fork, but in hindsight, the event was more of a train robbery than a Christmas gift — confusing at best. Segregated Witness does not only free up block space, but it also allows for Layer 2 scaling solutions to be built on top of Bitcoin, such as the Lightning Network. The Lightning Network allows for instant, completely anonymous, nearly free micro-transactions that do not take up block space, and it is up and running right now. In addition to this, the number of Lightning Network transactions that can be carried out simultaneously is only limited by the bandwidth of the nodes. This makes the Lightning Network a future real competitor to Visa or Mastercard. Many other Layer 2 upgrades are in the works, but the core Bitcoin network functions the same way it always has with its inputs and outputs, its public and private keys, and so on.

Will some other token ever replace Bitcoin, then? After all, more efficient protocols are out there. Short answer: no. This has been mentioned several times before in this book, but it can’t be stressed enough. Scarcity on the Internet was a one-time discovery. It was a one-time invention, and it cannot be repeated because resistance to replicability is the invention. Bitcoin’s history and unique position are what makes it truly scarce and resistant to change, and these first ten years will not repeat themselves for any “alternative” token. There is still a lot of confusion about what Bitcoin is, and the idea of sound money on the Internet is a hard concept to grasp since humans haven’t ever encountered absolute scarcity before. The best path forward for any person is arguably to educate him- or herself and others about the invention and what it means. Time will tell whether your sources were true or false, and it is unlikely that Bitcoin will achieve mass adoption in the next couple of years. Still, the infrastructure is in place, and the interfaces of its surrounding software, like wallets, are getting more and more user-friendly every day. Remember, the iPhone was first introduced to the world in 2007, and smartphones had enormous corporate marketing to help them succeed all along the way. Bitcoin grows organically. Let it breathe and watch it evolve but whatever you do, don’t miss the opportunity and acquire some while you still can, at this discounted price.

About the Bitcoin Infinity Academy#

The Bitcoin Infinity Academy is an educational project built around Knut Svanholm’s books about Bitcoin and Austrian Economics. Each week, a whole chapter from one of the books is released for free on Highlighter, accompanied by a video in which Knut and Luke de Wolf discuss that chapter’s ideas. You can join the discussions by signing up for one of the courses on our Geyser page. Signed books, monthly calls, and lots of other benefits are also available.