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Henrik Zeberg Says Bond Yields Will Collapse: The Cycle Thesis, Examined

Henrik Zeberg, the Swissblock strategist, is calling the most contrarian trade in the market: bond yields are about to collapse, the recession has already been signalled, and the bitcoin top is behind us. This episode states his cycle framework at full strength — inflation lags the labour market, and a payroll run-rate near thirty thousand sits where the previous eight recessions began — then sets it against the record. It reports where he beat the tape, concedes the credit-spread test he supplies that this series should have built itself, and marks the destination trades in dollars, gold and equities that have already turned against him. Where the mechanism holds and the clock is soft, this examination says so plainly.

DeepDives
vor 3 Wochen3 w ago23 Min.23 min
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Oil, Bond Yields and Private Credit: What Would Have to Change for Each to Get Better

Three markets are doing badly at once — oil, government debt and private credit — and this examination asks the forward question rather than the backward one: for each, what would it actually take for things to get better, and what would move first if it began? The answer runs through the plumbing rather than the price: the war risk insurance premium for oil, the term premium and the auction book for bonds, the redemption queue and the marks for credit. It finds demand destruction the only lever still working in oil, a long end that has stopped listening to the central bank, and a private credit market paying its caps while nothing that would constitute a repair has happened yet — then sets eight checkable markers so the series can be held to account.

DeepDives
vor 1 Mon.1 mo ago23 Min.23 min
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Princes of the Dollar: Why QE Is Over, Tested Against Our Own Thesis

A piece that ran on The Mesh Point, then on Bombthrower, then on ZeroHedge under the house byline Tyler Durden argues that quantitative easing is over and that the state must now direct credit rather than let the bond market allocate it. This examination tests it against our own published debasement thesis and is candid where the argument cuts against us: directed credit is the one form of money creation that could plausibly raise output enough to meet an existing debt stock, and if it works, our debasement arithmetic loses its middle term. What it cannot do is tell the reader how to know: its headline arrives with no measure, no date and no mechanism, and its theory of credit sits awkwardly beside a claim about the central bank's balance sheet. The verdict, the three tensions, and the markers that would confirm the article or falsify us.

DeepDives
vor 1 Mon.1 mo ago23 Min.23 min
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The Yield and the Hegemon: Why 5.12 Percent Is the Real National Security Strategy

The Yield and the Hegemon: Why 5.12 Percent Is the Real National Security Strategy

The 10-year Treasury at 5.12 percent is the real National Security Strategy: the United States can no longer pay for its own primacy and must make others pay. As with Britain in 1947, it is the bond market — not the Pentagon — that now dictates the terms of imperial retreat.

FAULTLINE - Daily Essays on Global Powerfaultline-gb
vor 1 Mon.1 mo ago8 Min.8 min
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