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Henrik Zeberg, the Swissblock strategist, is calling the most contrarian trade in the market: bond yields are about to collapse, the recession has already been signalled, and the bitcoin top is behind us. This episode states his cycle framework at full strength — inflation lags the labour market, and a payroll run-rate near thirty thousand sits where the previous eight recessions began — then sets it against the record. It reports where he beat the tape, concedes the credit-spread test he supplies that this series should have built itself, and marks the destination trades in dollars, gold and equities that have already turned against him. Where the mechanism holds and the clock is soft, this examination says so plainly.

Henrik Zeberg Says Bond Yields Will Collapse: The Cycle Thesis, Examined

Henrik Zeberg, the Swissblock strategist, is calling the most contrarian trade in the market: bond yields are about to collapse, the recession has already been signalled, and the bitcoin top is behind us. This episode states his cycle framework at full strength — inflation lags the labour market, and a payroll run-rate near thirty thousand sits where the previous eight recessions began — then sets it against the record. It reports where he beat the tape, concedes the credit-spread test he supplies that this series should have built itself, and marks the destination trades in dollars, gold and equities that have already turned against him. Where the mechanism holds and the clock is soft, this examination says so plainly.

DeepDives

vor 3 Wochen3 w ago23 Min.23 min

The final part of our examination of Jack Mallers and Europe is where the case meets its limits. We name the three omissions inside his mechanism — an unused central bank backstop, France's excessive deficit procedure, and a central bank that has itself been tightening — and we test his timing against the central bank's own data, where the August calm sits in the middle of a range that held for forty-four months and the fracture arrives in October alongside a budget and a collapsed government. We correct the figure that cuts broadest, give him the yen, the direction and the dating, name the claim that cannot fail, and leave eight dated markers by which the argument settles itself in public.

Jack Mallers on Europe: Where the Case Breaks (Part 3 of 3)

The final part of our examination of Jack Mallers and Europe is where the case meets its limits. We name the three omissions inside his mechanism — an unused central bank backstop, France's excessive deficit procedure, and a central bank that has itself been tightening — and we test his timing against the central bank's own data, where the August calm sits in the middle of a range that held for forty-four months and the fracture arrives in October alongside a budget and a collapsed government. We correct the figure that cuts broadest, give him the yen, the direction and the dating, name the claim that cannot fail, and leave eight dated markers by which the argument settles itself in public.

DeepDives

vor 3 Wochen3 w ago22 Min.22 min

Part two of three turns the earlier verdict on Jack Mallers' debt-and-dollar thesis into a comparison. Where a working operator reading real-time markets and a series triangulating documents reach the same conclusion by independent routes, both readings get stronger — and on the roll, the interest bill, the fading foreign buyer and the direction of the debasement trade, they do. Then the record beside his older claims: yields, the mortgage rate, the deficit level and the size of the debt aged well; the eight point three trillion refinancing figure, the Asian surplus flow and the demographic share never confirmed; and the claim that no country survives debt above one hundred and thirty per cent of output is contradicted by Japan and Singapore.

Jack Mallers on Europe: The Record So Far (Part 2 of 3)

Part two of three turns the earlier verdict on Jack Mallers' debt-and-dollar thesis into a comparison. Where a working operator reading real-time markets and a series triangulating documents reach the same conclusion by independent routes, both readings get stronger — and on the roll, the interest bill, the fading foreign buyer and the direction of the debasement trade, they do. Then the record beside his older claims: yields, the mortgage rate, the deficit level and the size of the debt aged well; the eight point three trillion refinancing figure, the Asian surplus flow and the demographic share never confirmed; and the claim that no country survives debt above one hundred and thirty per cent of output is contradicted by Japan and Singapore.

DeepDives

vor 3 Wochen3 w ago23 Min.23 min

Jack Mallers, the founder of Strike, hosts a show arguing that the euro system breaks before the American one. This first pass states his case at full strength: a central bank that hiked into forty trillion dollars of debt, a refinancing bill that grows on its own arithmetic, an intervention that sold euros rather than dollars, and a France he calls the first crack. His numbers largely hold, and two pieces of evidence, the euro's fall of nearly five per cent against the yen and Japanese holdings of French bonds, are real. His motive for it all remains, in his own words, speculation.

Jack Mallers on Europe: The Case Examined (Part 1 of 3)

Jack Mallers, the founder of Strike, hosts a show arguing that the euro system breaks before the American one. This first pass states his case at full strength: a central bank that hiked into forty trillion dollars of debt, a refinancing bill that grows on its own arithmetic, an intervention that sold euros rather than dollars, and a France he calls the first crack. His numbers largely hold, and two pieces of evidence, the euro's fall of nearly five per cent against the yen and Japanese holdings of French bonds, are real. His motive for it all remains, in his own words, speculation.

DeepDives

vor 3 Wochen3 w ago23 Min.23 min

Two theses about the next financial crisis survived the first two parts of this trilogy intact and unreconciled — one holds that the crisis variable is the speed of private credit growth, the other that it is the funding cost of the sovereign itself. This final part stops asking which man is right and states the synthesis the evidence actually supports: a private credit cycle running inside a sovereign funding cycle, where one sets the shape of the shock and the other sets the price of the answer. It weighs the show's own debasement prior against the prices on the screen, names the versions of both claims that cannot fail, and sets out six dated, published markers — from auction coverage to the breakeven against the real yield — that will settle an argument between two sound mechanisms.

A Private Credit Cycle Inside a Sovereign Funding Cycle: The Synthesis and a Realistic Way Forward (Part 3 of 3)

Two theses about the next financial crisis survived the first two parts of this trilogy intact and unreconciled — one holds that the crisis variable is the speed of private credit growth, the other that it is the funding cost of the sovereign itself. This final part stops asking which man is right and states the synthesis the evidence actually supports: a private credit cycle running inside a sovereign funding cycle, where one sets the shape of the shock and the other sets the price of the answer. It weighs the show's own debasement prior against the prices on the screen, names the versions of both claims that cannot fail, and sets out six dated, published markers — from auction coverage to the breakeven against the real yield — that will settle an argument between two sound mechanisms.

DeepDives

vor 3 Wochen3 w ago23 Min.23 min

Part one set Richard Vague against Jack Mallers: one saying the crisis risk sits in private debt, the other saying government debt is the trap. This part is the ledger they agreed would settle it, testing each claim against the Treasury's own debt and interest data, the Bank for International Settlements, the Treasury International Capital series, and live market prices. The money-creation mechanism is confirmed by the Bank of England's own bulletin, and the current private-debt level of one hundred and forty per cent checks out exactly. The claimed one hundred and fifty-three per cent peak cannot be reproduced, the market is not pricing debasement, and the roll, the gap between the average cost of the debt already issued and the marginal cost of new borrowing, is the strongest item either guest brought. The verdict is mixed.

Testing Both Debt Theses Against the Record: What the Data Supports, What It Cannot Settle, and What It Contradicts (Part 2 of 3)

Part one set Richard Vague against Jack Mallers: one saying the crisis risk sits in private debt, the other saying government debt is the trap. This part is the ledger they agreed would settle it, testing each claim against the Treasury's own debt and interest data, the Bank for International Settlements, the Treasury International Capital series, and live market prices. The money-creation mechanism is confirmed by the Bank of England's own bulletin, and the current private-debt level of one hundred and forty per cent checks out exactly. The claimed one hundred and fifty-three per cent peak cannot be reproduced, the market is not pricing debasement, and the roll, the gap between the average cost of the debt already issued and the marginal cost of new borrowing, is the strongest item either guest brought. The verdict is mixed.

DeepDives

vor 3 Wochen3 w ago23 Min.23 min

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Henrik Zeberg Says Bond Yields Will Collapse: The Cycle Thesis, Examined

Jack Mallers on Europe: Where the Case Breaks (Part 3 of 3)

Jack Mallers on Europe: The Record So Far (Part 2 of 3)

Jack Mallers on Europe: The Case Examined (Part 1 of 3)

A Private Credit Cycle Inside a Sovereign Funding Cycle: The Synthesis and a Realistic Way Forward (Part 3 of 3)

Testing Both Debt Theses Against the Record: What the Data Supports, What It Cannot Settle, and What It Contradicts (Part 2 of 3)